We are witnessing "peak car". Independent car sales and use are in a long term fall. A briefing from Futurist Chet W. Sisk
Now, before you chime in and say "well Chet, auto sales ebb and flow all the time", make sure that you check out the reports below:
A combination of automation and lower demand in the world have killed 38, 000 automotive jobs in the past 6 months. https://amp.businessinsider.com/peak-car-38000-layoffs-job-losses-sales-at-auto-makers-2019-5
A lot of Americans, particularly millennials, have fallen out of love with cars. https://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-young-adults-cars-attitudes-20181106-story.html
In an effort to reduce their carbon footprint, more and more people are suggesting that we forego cars altogether. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/07/11/save-planet-cut-holidays-sell-car-dont-have-many-children-say/
The price of cars and the upkeep has outstripped many people's ability to keep one. Ride sharing is a lot cheaper for people living paycheck to paycheck (which is most people in the world). https://www.moneycrashers.com/ridesharing-carsharing/
Autonomous automobiles are going to rewrite how we get from place to place and that will be dramatically more efficient and effective than owning a car for yourself. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/052014/how-googles-selfdriving-car-will-change-everything.asp
If you own a business that is dependent upon the purchase and maintenance of automobiles, you'll be feeling some significant affects on your business over thee next 3-5 years as this trend continues to ramp up. The world that many of us knew is being transformed before our very eyes. The idea of a car in every garage is giving way to a ride sharing app on every phone. Make no mistake, this shift is and will continue to be big. Whether or not it will happen fast enough for us to dodge cataclysmic climate crisis events.....is a subject for another briefing.
"Survival of the fittest" theory and climate crisis. It's all about adaptation. A briefing from Futurist Chet W. Sisk
For the record, scientist Charles Darwin never said this:
"It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent that survives. It is the one that is most adaptable to change."
However, Darwin's colleagues and disciples forwarded this quote as they read over his notes and looked at his evidence. The species that were able to live on when an environment rapidly changed were those who developed adaptable approaches and skill sets. The biggest and most cut throat species were eventually phased out. That's why we don't have dinosaurs running up and down our streets today. That happened for humans, too about 50 thousand years ago when we embraced more feminine ideas and principles so that we didn't die out then...
So here we are, at yet another moment in time when rapid change is forcing us to confront an existential threat to our time on the earth in the form of climate crisis. Unfortunately, some of us believe maintaining the status quo will allow us to navigate this time of change. All the while, Darwin's evidence says just the opposite -- adapt.
Adaptation means rethinking the very processes that got us to this point of crisis in the first place. It means considering new, innovative and creative approaches to how we are to live going forward. It means embracing just the opposite of the ways that we've employed over the past few centuries. It means a complete re-evaluation of what works, what doesn't and what can we do now with the tools at hand.
The truth is that adaptation is a good thing. It forces us to rethink what works best, instead of taking for granted years and years of ideas that aren't agile in a new world. This kind of re-evaluation isn't something that should be left up to a few guys in backroom meetings. This is the time when communities must start to think about their immediate future and how they will grow to meet the crisis head on. I just returned from my home state of Iowa and I can tell you first hand, the people there ARE asking those questions after some of the nasty flooding this spring.
Adaptation, like change, can be our friend, but only if we reach out and shake hands with it. If we leave the current time to it's own devices (as some are suggesting) we are writing our own epitaph, as so many other species have done before us. I'm not writing the article to frighten or scare........well, okay, maybe a little bit. But it's primarily meant to remind us all we are now looking at a moment to get rid of racism, sexism, exploitation, and income inequality. They all come from the same source that made us enemy to the planet.
The future does not belong to the fastest, quickest, biggest or strongest. It belongs to those of you who are saying
"I bet we can do better than this."
Fatter, sicker, dumber. Three ways the Western diet is eating you and your future alive and how you can stop it. A briefing from Futurist Chet W. Sisk
Wikipedia provides this definition of the Western diet: "The Western pattern diet (WPD) or standard American diet (SAD) is a modern dietary pattern that is generally characterized by high intakes of red meat, processed meat, pre-packaged foods, butter, fried foods, high fat dairy products, eggs, refined grains, potatoes, corn (and high fructose corn syrup) and high sugar drinks. "
That's about right.
Despite the rise in popularity of The Mediterranean diet, the West African diet, the Asian Fish diet and other, more healthy options, the Western diet is growing in popularity and spreading throughout the world. Why? Because cheap, savory, ultra processed and chemically altered foods are from companies with huge advertising budgets, the foods are conveniently located and the foods can hook you into food addiction because you can actually develop addictions to the sugar. Just in case some of you believe this is just a matter of freedom of choice, let me provide four recent discoveries in science that indicate the Western diet is destroying your future.
The Western diet has been directly linked to the rise of cancer in Western countries and it's spread throughout the emerging world. https://www.cnn.com/2019/05/22/health/diet-cancer-risk-study/index.html
The Western diet has been directly linked to the obesity epidemic happening in Western countries and now spreading in emerging countries as they embrace it. Wherever the Western diet goes in the world, an obesity epidemic is quick to follow....https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2017/01/170111184359.htm
Some preliminary research indicates that the Western diet may be linked to the drop in intelligence that's trending in Western countries. NOTE: The drop in intelligence is in families and not directly related to recent immigration. https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/iq-rates-are-dropping-many-developed-countries-doesn-t-bode-ncna1008576
And yes, the Western diet is directly related to the climate crisis. https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/18/health/plant-based-diet-climate-change-food-drayer/index.html
This is the scorched earth being left in the wake of the Western diet. But it's not like there aren't alternatives. There are, but the lobby to keep you on the diet is significant. Here are some things you can do:
Don't make it a zero sum game. I love chocolate, but I'm not going to cut it completely out of my list of rewards I can give to myself for a job well done. Now, I get the 92% real cacao. Even more, I've reduced my daily added sugar intake to less than 20 grams per day. It's not gone, it just doesn't own me anymore.
Go organic. I can hear some of you already saying "but organic is so much more expensive!" More expensive than a coronary? More expensive than chemotherapy? It's not about the expense. It's about our priorities. We've lived on the cheap for so long, we forgot that quality costs a little more, but in the end, it's worth it.
Partner with food conscious friends. It's true....we are greatly influenced in our food choices by the company we keep. If someone close to us has a more conscious food perspective, we tend to lean in to their choices because we respect them. If we're with someone that eats anything and everything, we tend to mirror that experience, too.
There are alternatives to the Western diet, despite how all-pervasive it may seem. Your future depends on you knowing that fact.
Here are five skills you and/or your kids need to be successful in the new world emerging.
The next set of skills for people to be successful in the new world emerging are much more intuitive than in the industrial days. Because the robots can now do the monotonous and heavy lifting work, we are being challenged to be more intuitive, cerebral and thoughtful. Leaning into more right brain thinking will be the recipe for success in a world that demands it. Here are the top five skills that will make all the difference....
The power of global competence cannot be understated. We are more connected than at any time in known human history. Our ability to navigate a world of differences will be the deal maker or breaker for future leaders, creators, entrepreneurs and innovators. Isolationism might work in the recesses of someone's mind, but in the real world, your ability to show up in empathy, understanding, patience and willingness with people around the world will win the day.
Personal Brand Management
Your ability to manage your name, reputation as well as your digital history will take on extra importance as more and more potential employers, partners and clients go online to see what you've said and done. Unfortunately, many people don't understand that their digital footprint doesn't go away. Having Personal Brand Management skills will help you establish a presence in your field. https://statuslabs.com/7-easy-steps-to-manage-your-personal-brand-online/
Feminine Principle Leadership
The default mode of leadership in the world today is command and control --- a guy or group of guys at the top telling everyone else what to do. Only now are we seeing the limits and the carnage left in the wake of command and control leadership. Feminine Principle Leadership requires a collaborative approach that brings everyone in to work on the challenge or solution together. This is not a feel good moment. It's a leadership model that leverages the best of more people, sharing the responsibility. This is a new skill for a new world. https://www.oxfordleadership.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/oxford-leadership-article-femine-principle-and-theroy-u.pdf
It's funny how the very thing that defines our success in the world, relationships, isn't really taught in our schools. Cliches' and anecdotal statements from a motivational speaker is the extent that most people do their relationship work. Again, the interconnected nature of the world now will require us to make relationship (family, business, friends, etc) top priority --- not an afterthought.
With the rise of the gig economy, comes the importance of knowing how to be an effective gig manager. Being a gigger is different that being a 9-5 worker. It requires a completely different mindset because of the precarious and opportunistic nature of gigging. https://hbr.org/2018/03/thriving-in-the-gig-economy
Most of the world is still teaching and learning by old standards of the industrial economy. This is also complicating the ever expanding income inequality in the world. The new world requires more of our humanity, our intuitive self and our vision.
Why communities will out preform corporations over the next 3-5 years. A briefing from Futurist Chet W. Sisk
All indicators are pointing to effective, agile, well organized community groups will start to swing more power in the next few years as they respond to climate change, income inequality, systemic racism and automation unemployment. Check out the comparison to corporations.
Corporations: The culture of shortsightedness . The massive stock buy back frenzy that followed the recent trillion dollar tax cut is a classic demonstration of what happens when your company doesn't want to put money into or wait for innovation but wants money now. This was called illegal as a form of stock manipulation that artificially inflates the value of your company until 1982 when the Reagan administration eliminated 10b-18 of the Securities Exchange Act. This rule was originally designed to prevent short term stock manipulation so that companies don't crash and burn in the long run. This scenario can't end well.
Communities: The new haven of creativity and innovation. The challenges of climate change, income inequality along with revolutionary technology is providing fertile ground for communities to quickly implement tools, resources and products that can transform their environments to be climate ready, tech able and income empowered. If you have some innovative and creative assets, you'd be better off taking them to community groups instead of corporations.
Corporations: No longer producing broad economic prosperity. What some would call a time of prosperity in the US between 1947 - 1979 was when corporations saw the importance of developing the communities that their workers lived in and contributing to the public good. That wasn't the case for all communities (African Americans suffered greatly under systemic racism) but there was a different idea behind the corporation. That idea has been transformed as corporations pushed forward on stock buy back and automation, creating middle-class wage stagnation and the unprecedented income and wealth inequality.
Communities: The opportunity to create broad economic abundance. Cooperative models, leveraging technology, galvanizing local talent and a shared sense of destiny are the tools that more communities will use to fill in the leadership gap previously given to large corporations.
Corporations: No climate change vision. Many corporations are simply clicking their heels together, closing their eyes and hoping that the potential disasters of climate change and natural world collapse will not affect their profits. They are stuck in a "business as usual" feedback loop.
Communities: More flexibility in creating climate change response. Of course, communities have the potential to be more agile than corporations as long as there is an efficient awareness campaign. Once more people are up to speed about the stakes involved, municipalities can move fairly quickly and with flexibility.
Corporations: Maximize profit at all costs. It is this corporate mantra that has led us to the extinction level event of climate change. If profit, not society or it's people, is the at the center of the corporate belief system, there is no incentive to rethink strategy or position in relation to quality of life.
Communities: An expanding people-oriented investment vehicle. Communities will take on super importance over the next few years because they can provide a better ROI than corporations right now. That ROI isn't measured in dollars but in lives saved, investment in human capital and the future of the planet.
There are a ton of resources looking for places to go in light of the massive changes happening in society and the world. Smart communities can provide that landing space.
In a profit-based environment, the original purpose of the mindfulness trend is being hijacked. But there are ways of recovering it . A briefing from Futurist Chet W. Sisk
Before I start, let me say that the movement that believes in a higher consciousness, a more holistic way of looking at the world and a connected way of treating each other is a good thing. In fact, it is quite personal to me as I see it as a tool of empowerment. That being said, it appears to me that the mindfulness movement, particularly in the US, is being transformed by the profit motive.
While the trend of people trying mindfulness techniques such as yoga and meditation have skyrocketed around the world over the last 10 years, so have the carpetbaggers who have come in to exploit the movement to make a fast buck. https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2019/3/29/18264703/mindfulness-meditation-buddhism-david-forbes
There are new mindfulness "gurus" who simply want you to feel "happy". That's opposite to the origins of mindfulness in Buddhism ...those origins are to end suffering ....http://www.buddhistpeacefellowship.org/capitalists-want-you-to-be-happy-self-improvement-and-exploitation/
Some people use mindfulness as a way to check out of social responsibility and see it only as a personal practice. It can become self-indulgent and cerebral. But there are a number of teachers who want to bring it back to it's core understanding....that all things are connected.....https://www.garrisoninstitute.org/blog/mindfulness-and-social-justice/
RECOVERING THE ROOTS OF THE PRACTICE
While corporate franchise yoga studios are doing tremendous business, you may want to rethink your practice and seek out smaller, more intimate studios that provide a much more contemplative environment. The original purpose of yoga was not to give you a proper workout. It was designed to help you get centered.
Meditation is not a way to feel happier about bad situations. As stated in the report above, it is designed to help you feel connected to all living things. Thus, if there is injustice or unfairness or pain or suffering to any you are connected to, your job is to help end that suffering and not disengage from it under the guise of non-attachment.
Remember that mindfulness is a practice not afforded by everyone. If you are in an environment where you are not challenged by financial concerns, your mindfulness experience is different than someone who is worrying about whether their lights will stay on or if they have enough to eat that day. Remember that and support them in creating the environment where they can reduce their worries so they can be present.
Mindfulness is one of the biggest trends of our time. Let's protect its possibilities.
Why climate change, social justice, automation unemployment and income inequality are all tied together. A briefing from Futurist Chet W. Sisk
The criticism around the Green New Deal is that it is too broad, too sweeping and too all-encompassing. It is seeking to address a bunch of different things when it should be concentrating on mitigating the effects of extreme weather. As a Futurist, my job is to follow trends and find out how those trends will impact humanity. Here are four trends that indicate why any legislation that addresses climate change must also address the sister crises of income inequality, automation unemployment and social justice.
Climate change mitigation means re-inventing society. One of the most stark statements from the International Panel on Climate Change in their exhaustive report from last year is this one:
We must fundamentally change the nature of society in the next decade.
That's unprecedented. I say, this could be a good thing. Our societies have a bunch of open wounds that we have been too lazy or too afraid to address. It appears climate change is dragging us to the table of solutions kicking and screaming. We will need to redress how we live, how we treat the environment and, fundamentally, how we treat each other. Whatever we've done prior to this moment in time, has brought us to an extinction level event. We now are forced to think about a new way forward.
It's time for global social justice. While climate change is a global responsibility of every nation, it cannot be ignored that the primary makers of the challenge we face now are the richest nations ---the global north industrial nations along with China.
Unfortunately, the global south countries and disenfranchised communities of color will face the brunt of the immediate disasters. In the spirit of fairness, this is an opportunity for the world communities to re-imagine how they work together. A campaign to make this part of the climate change mitigation strategy only makes sense.
Offsetting automation unemployment with climate change jobs: At the worst possible time, millions of people will be losing their jobs to advanced technology. At the least, pay will stagnate and start to drop as automation and robots make the concept of job cheaper.
This challenge provides the perfect time to put a climate change workforce into place to address the most pressing issues around the world. I grew up as a member of the Youth Conversation Corp. We were paid to address weather-related disasters and environmental crises. Re-creating something along those lines can help offset the job crisis as it unfolds while addressing our most pressing need -- climate change mitigation.
Addressing income inequality before a bad situation gets worse. Income inequality is threatening the very fabric of societies as workers struggle to meet the day to day. As climate change disasters continue to rise, people will need resources to cope with moving and basic survival. Providing Universal Basic Income may be one idea to check into. Another would be more creative approaches to how our communities are set up. We're running out of time on this.
I invite you to join me on the new television feature I've created called Change! The Subject. In this feature, we're going to motivate you to get beyond stunned inactivity and into personal activity where you can actually do something that will affect the current trajectory of our planet. This won't be a promotion for you to do more recycling or a warning not to litter in the forest. These will be robust ideas that can be implemented in your community. Let's stay close.
Why are we dragging our feet on doing something about climate change? A briefing from Futurist Chet W. Sisk
Being a Futurist can be an intensely frustrating adventure. You're looking at the data for the next 3-5 years and see why we must act now on climate change. China, Germany, Kenya, Finland, Sweden, Morocco, the UK, South Africa and a host of other countries are making big moves on this. But the United States, 4% of the world's population but putting out 25% of the world's carbon emissions, is essentially sitting on the sidelines watching the world go by. Of course, that doesn't apply to everyone in the States. There are great efforts being made by private and public organizations seeking to get us organized and focused on this issue. But collectively, we're stuck. Why? Some would like to blame this on the government, but the reality is that there is some disconnect in the everyday population. Here are four reasons why that is.....
Slios. There are so many causes and issues we're seeking to address. From mayoral elections, to school board issues to racism to student debt. All of these things are critically important, but they mean nothing if our food, water and air infrastructures break down due to droughts, floods, extreme weather and heatwaves. Suggestion: All of these pressing issues must be folded into the climate change agenda to save the future. We should demand the mayoral candidate have a climate change plan if they want to be elected. We can drill down on racism by creating green jobs in communities of color that transform the community into smart neighborhoods, etc.
We think it's too far away. Any discussions that say the real effects of climate change will be felt in our grandchildren's lifetime need only read the latest headlines about bomb cycles, historic flooding, intense hurricanes, melting glaciers and deadly heatwaves all over the world right now. Suggestion: Keep daily weather developments at the top of conversations you have with friends and family. There is some kind of weather occurrence almost every day in the news that can be attributed to climate change. Don't let others put this conversation in the "I'll be dead and gone" ghetto.
"I'm just trying to survive." Fair enough. That's a real challenge in communities of color and other disenfranchised groups. But let me offer another take. Suggestion: If there was ever a time to break from the survival mode of living into a thriving one, it would be in re-imagining the way forward and using climate change as a platform to create jobs, redevelop communities and leverage innovation. The Chinese and the Germans are certainly doing it. To mitigate climate change, we need all shoulders at the wheel. That means bringing in resources to create opportunities.
We don't know what to do and are overwhelmed. That is a legitimate argument. Popular media has been defining the challenge over the past few years, but now it's time to lay out things the average person can do in their day to day lives to help. Suggestion: In a couple of weeks, I'll be starting a video series, produced with the help of CBSNews4 called Change: The Subject. It will provide real world, tangible, everyday things you can do to help mitigate climate change. Stay with me. I'll have more information next week.
Do you believe in the phrase "the harder you work, the luckier you get"? Before you answer that, check out what I discovered. A briefing from Futurist Chet W. Sisk.
In my third book, Think this, Not that -- It's time to update your conventional wisdom, I talk about how really bad, uninformed and egregious cultural myths have led to some really bad policy and decision making. Even when it seems there are more people who are guided by ignorance, the truth is that we're in the middle of a shift away from those "fake" myths:. This has been trending for the past few decades. Here are some of those myths that are being overturned
"The Bible says God helps those who helps themselves". There is no biblical scripture that says this.
Evolution says humankind came from monkeys. Nope. It only says we share a common ancestry.
Columbus discovered America. You can't "discover" someone else's home, especially when that someone else (Native Americans) has actively lived in that home for thousands of years. Besides, the closest Columbus got to what is now the United States was landing in the Bahamas. Even more, Africans and Vikings beat Columbus to this area of the world by about 500 years.
Here is another conventional thought that's being overturned...."the harder you work, the luckier you get". Make no mistake. I truly do believe in the power of hard work, thanks to the careful guidance of my two entrepreneurial and hardworking parents. But maybe hard work isn't telling the whole story for each of us.
While it is true Americans work harder than any people anywhere in the world....
......we have been trending toward becoming poorer, more stressed and less healthy.....
Perhaps becoming luckier is also about a healthy environment and support structures that empower. Even more, perhaps it also means rethinking mindfulness and how it suggests our real power is in working less....not more.
The current shift we're in away from fraudulent myths and cultural stories may pave the way for a rethinking of work and the future of work.
"What makes you say that?" How I make predictions about the immediate future. A briefing from Futurist Chet W. Sisk
Speaking at a luncheon with the Apartment Association of Denver last fall, I made the prediction that we would be talking about a recession within 18 months. Eight months later, here is one of this week's headlines:
Frankly, predicting a recession or an economic slowdown is low hanging fruit for most Futurists. The economy, as it is structured, works in cycles. These are not natural cycles, but artificially created, and often stimulated by bad decision making. The heavy lifting in Futurism is in understanding how trends come together and how they will impact society. and the world, on the whole. To get to that understanding, I go to three sources: trends in investments, legislative/regulatory direction and social developments. In our society as it is currently structured, where money goes provides a pretty good indicator of where the country is headed.. Legislation and regulation usually follow the money because legislators have a close relationship with the money people. Then, the social impact of this energy comes after that. Here are sources I check out almost every single morning to follow these three areas.....
Investor's Business Daily
Wall Street Journal
National Conference of State Legislatures
The Washington Post
The Young Turks
South China Morning Post
The Daily Beast
Often times, it's more if I wish to follow a story down a rabbit hole of links. It's a good mixture of conservative and progressive, news and entertainment, business and science, pop and government, spiritual and religious. The real challenge of aggregating this information is making sense of it all...looking for repeated messages from various writers , reporters and data, then coming to a simple, tangible prediction.
For example, I saw five different sources that pointed to re-insurers (those that insure insurance companies) are raising their rates for insurance companies because their forecasts see climate change causing even more crises around the world. The recent historic flooding in the American Midwest and in Zimbabwe may have spurred this action. That means insurance rates will go up for everyone as insurance companies pass the increase down to you. From my intuitive self, based on information I've gathered earlier, this also means it's going to become more and more expensive to live along the coasts or in wooded areas. In my mind, this fuels in-country mass migration for the middle class and working poor who don't have those resources and also for the very rich who DO have those resources and can afford to simply leave.
I also saw the dairy industry seeking more precise legislation to slow down the growth of plant based milk-alternatives. They want to keep Almond, Rice and Soy milk producers from using the term "milk" in their branding. The dairy industry sees this as hurting their business. It's true --- dairy milk producers market share has taken a dramatic dip while plant based alternatives have surged., but name branding isn't the only reason. More people are concerned about digesting cow's milk as part of a healthy diet. This could mean lower milk prices as the dairy industry will seek to compete. It could also mean higher prices as the dairy industry seek to make up their losses.
It's one thing to get information. It's another thing to interpret what that information means to the average person now and in the future. That's my job. Sometimes I miss it. Part of the occupational hazard. But it's important that we get clear, thoughtful analysis in an age of "fake news". My job is a mixture of formal journalism training, metrics analysis and intuition. I hope this helps those of you who were wondering "what makes you say that?"
Chet W. Sisk is an author and one of the world's leading Social Futurists. He is also expert on the current world paradigm shift. Find out more about him and the LEAD Global Team at www.leadtheshift.com or you can write him directly at email@example.com