Five potential "black swans" that could change the immediate future. A LEAD Global briefing from Futurist Chet W. Sisk
A few years ago, Nassim Nicholas Taleb wrote a book called The Black Swan. It was basically a book about how unforeseen events and circumstances can change the trajectory of a society or of the world. These unforeseen circumstances are called "black swans" because they are unexpected. As a futurist, my job is to look for these events so that I can make projections of how your life will be impacted by these developments.
Based on the collective data to date, here are factors developing in many countries:
1. There is an ongoing concentration of wealth in the hands of a few people..
2. There will be massive job loss around the world due to technological advances.
3. Climate change is negatively affecting the environment.
4. Human rights are being challenged.
By most people's standards, these are not good developments. These are trends. Trends are collective decisions. And like most decisions, we can change our minds, including how we react to climate change. Here are five black swans that I believe could change the current world trajectory.
A major weather/climate catastrophe. This one is a fairly easy call because of the obvious effects of climate change that have become more pronounced over the last few years. If it does happen, it could be the wake-up call to force governments to become more pro-active. The chance that this challenge could manifest over the next few years: 50% http://listverse.com/2015/05/25/10-major-natural-disasters-predicted-in-the-near-future/
The discovery of a planet that can sustain human life or already has life. Not to long ago, "experts" told us that it would be a fantastic stroke of luck that we'd discover life outside of the earth. Now it seems every week scientists discover a new planet that can sustain life as we know it. This could change everything we know and understand about our existence and change the way we treat each other and the planet. The chance that we could make this discovery in the next few years: 10%
A major political meltdown in the United States. What happens in the US directly affects the rest of the world, so recent develops are deeply concerning. Not since the Business Plot of 1932 has there been this much anxiety on the direction of this country. This happening could push newer forms of government to the fore. The chance that we could experience a meltdown in the US over the next few years...20%
A collective action around the world that would signal a new direction. Yes, there is a global consciousness shift happening in the world. It appears that the events of late are pushing this movement along. The shift isn't hyperbole or great story telling. Something is happening. Bad governance, climate change and wealth inequality are the primary drivers. The chance that we could experience this change in the next few years...30% http://www.davidsuzuki.org/blogs/science-matters/2015/07/is-the-climate-crisis-creating-a-global-con...
A world economic collapse. Every financial "guru" this side of the Mississippi has been predicting a financial collapse for years. Unfortunately, fear sells. I say ignore these "merchants of mayhem" and check in with your intuition. What do you see is happening around you? Recently, there have been a number of articles about the rich and well to do building doomsday bunkers. Consider this an intuitive tip. Should something happen, other economic systems are waiting in the wing. The chances of this occurring over the next few years...30%
LEAD Global Community
A colleague of mine in Nepal has a great portable recycling machine for Katmandu. If you're interested in providing suggestions on how he can turn this into a money-making social venture and maybe even partner with him, write us at email@example.com, then write "Nepal" in the subject line.
There is a writer in Miami, FL who wants to talk to anyone who has had to go through the US criminal justice system. This is a prelude to his book on restorative justice. There is some compensation for those of you who share your story. Write us back at firstname.lastname@example.org and put in "restorative" in the subject line.
There is a empowerment coach in Mexico City, Mexico who would like to help you manage through this time of historic change. She can do it through Skype. You can find out more about her and her project by writing us at email@example.com and put in "empowerment" in the subject line.
The first Universal Basic Income meeting.
We are finally at a place to do our first meeting of the Universal Basic Income participants in the Denver, US area. It will be May 6th at 1:00pm. We'll provide the location in the next week. If you know of anyone else who would like to participate, we are still in need of 12 more people (much to the chagrin of our potential sponsor). Please let others know we need them.
Chet W. Sisk is an author and one of the world's leading Social Futurists. He is also expert on the current world paradigm shift. Find out more about him and the LEAD Global Team at www.leadtheshift.com or you can write him directly at firstname.lastname@example.org